Stacking the Deck with Jokers

Group Think for Leaders

There's a phenomenon in survival and safety/accident research where people increase their exposure to risk by getting away with inherently risky acts. Getting away with it creates a mental model that doesn't see the risk, or believes the activity to be safe. In some cases, this is compounded by the fact that every time the activity is repeated it builds up more "energy" for a failure.

A good example of this is people texting while driving. The first time someone does it, they feel uncertain and nervous. Nothing bad happens so they do it again, maybe giving even more time to the screen. Gradually they desensitise themselves to the risk, feeling like it does not apply to them.

I call it "Stacking the deck with Jokers". At some point, someone will brake suddenly in front of them. They are unprepared, not alert, and have no plan in mind. They have no "real" cards to play. The research shows people in this state become victims of accidents that were totally obvious and predictable to others. If they survive, they report being completely taken by surprise...

We do this in the business environment as well. It looks like a lack of self leadership - ignoring an intuitive sense that something isn't quite right, following someone else's lead with blind faith, developing a sense of complacency with team members or customers.

There are some simple measures to avoid falling into this state. A friend demonstrated them beautifully as a pilot in a close formation flying display. It was led by a well known and respected pilot of considerable experience. The weather was marginal for flying to the extent that any good flying instructor would caution their students never to fly under those conditions. He described the lead up to take off:

• exhilaration for being part of it
• busy, focused on ensuring his preflight checks were thorough and complete
• a sense of peer pressure (we have a display to put on, everyone else seems happy to go)
• unquestioning faith in the experience, qualification and leadership of the pilot in charge - "if he thinks its safe with all his experience, I will follow him"
• a small niggling feeling of doubt about the weather

At the last moment he aborted his takeoff. The others completed their flight uneventfully, stacking the deck with jokers like "its OK to fly in conditions like that".

What made it possible for my friend to abort? It was all about self leadership:

Intuition - He paid attention to the small but persistent intuitive feeling that he was putting himself and others at risk.
Self Examination - He began to ask questions like "Would I fly in these conditions under normal circumstances?"
Backing himself - He "switched on" his own training, experience, judgment and thinking and assessed the situation himself, rather than just following the group.
Courage - He exercised the courage of the self leader, and took a decision that was possibly unpopular with the leader and his peers

People who apply these principles are of great value to themselves and those around them - they make it possible to "see" risky mental models and make sound choices. They stack the deck in their favour. Those are valuable skills in leadership.

Is there anyone you follow blindly - especially if it is detrimental to yourself, others and the results you are trying to achieve? What would you need to do to exercise more judgement and self leadership in that situation?

Retreat - Stepping back to forge ahead

I recently spent a few glorious days among one of the best wildflower seasons in living memory. Along with a few people dear to me, I sat on the shores of a beautiful inland lake north of Perth on the fringe of the desert. We walked, talked, gazed at stars, relaxed and explored.

Some of our conversations were serious - exploring the challenges of life. Others were exploratory, creative, or connecting. We laughed and shared great food.

A retreat is a great opportunity to take time out and take stock. Some people I speak to feel they haven't got the time, or that investing in themselves on retreat is not something that they can justify. As leaders, it's easy to get caught up in the constant drive of modern work. We can get to a point of being so focused on getting things done that out view becomes increasingly short and our creativity and enthusiasm wane. I've spoken to several leaders in the past few weeks who are feeling like they are just going through the motions. Some spoke of a grinding sense of fatigue and even burnout.

A retreat creates many opportunities:

• to deeply explore why you do what you do
• to examine and reset habits
• to reflect and consolidate learning
• to seek counsel from mentors and peers
• to make time for strategy
• to gather energy for the next productive push
• to reset your intention and purpose
• to build resilence and wellbeing
• to simply stop and rest

A good retreat will return you to your work with renewed focus, energy and enthusiasm. When was the last time you took time out of the day to day busyness to take stock?

I've joined with a team of four other dynamic and inspirational leaders to bring a two day retreat to Perth on October 30 and 31. Lead By Example is a retreat designed for leaders and owners in all kinds of business. if you would like more information for yourself, a colleague, or a family member you can find it at www.mikehouse.com.au/lead-by-example/ We would love to see you there. 

Expectations alter Reality

Last week we explored how expectations kill people.

But expectations have another, perhaps more powerful function. They bend reality to meet us. Humans have always been able to imagine a different reality and then bring it into being. It's the source of every innovation we have ever made.

Research and anecdotal evidence shows that many people in survival situations stay alive against incredible odds, sometimes even defying medical science. It would be reasonable to think that they are people who are physically tough, or better trained for the situation that they face. The reality is far more interesting – the one thing they have in common is that they expect to survive.
 

There's a great example of this in  “Unbroken”, Laura Hillenbrand’s biography of Louie Zamparini. Louie was lost at sea on a life raft for 47 days having been shot down over the Pacific in 1943. The on the raft were two of Louie's  crew mates - the only survivors of the crash. The book and subsequent movie are well worth a look.

“Though all three men faced the same hardship, their differing perceptions of it appeared to be shaping their fates. Louie and Phil’s hope displaced their fear and inspired them to work toward their survival, and each success renewed their physical and emotional vigour. Mac’s resignation seemed to paralyse him and the less he participated in their efforts to survive, the more he slipped. Though he did the least, as the days passed, it was he who faded the most. Louie and Phil’s optimism, and Mac’s hopelessness, were becoming self-fulfilling.”

— Unbroken - Laura Hillenbrand

Ultimately, Mac passed away, while the other two survived their ordeal.

There's a powerful link between what we expect, what we intend and where we put our attention.
Zamparini intended to survive. He expected events to unfold to support his intention. He gave his attention to the evidence that suggested he was right, and to the actions that supported his intention.

You and I have intentions and expectations everyday, in every area of our lives, whether we are aware of them or not. They guide and focus our attention. For the greatest likelihood of success, all three factors need to be conscious and work in harmony with each other.

Asking yourself these questions will assist in bringing them into your conscious mind. 

What is my intention? Am I clear about my intention? If not, how can I make my intention clearer to myself and the people around me? Is my intention aligned to my personal values?

What do I expect in this situation?

Now give your attention to the actions and mindsets that serve you best in this moment, and watch as reality begins to take shape around you according to your expectations.

Expectations kill people!

In every survival situation I can think of it’s the expectations that did it.

The pilot expected to make it through lowering cloud… and flew into a mountain.

The prospector expected to find his way back to his vehicle… and was lost for days.

The lost man expected to find water… and perished from dehydration.

Reality! - No one in their right mind would continue into a situation they expect will kill them. 

In a survival situation the feedback is rapid. When you make a mistake the consequences are quickly experienced, sometimes in a matter of hours.

In our fast paced modern life, consequences may take days, or even years to arrive, but they are just as inevitable:

They expected the boom to go on and on...

He expected his staff to care as much about his business as he did…

So how can expectations lead us so far astray?
The fact is that our amazing brain treats memories of actual events and expectations of the future in exactly the same way.

“[Expectations] are stored in memory just as past events are. To the brain the future is as real as the past.”
L. Gonzales in ‘Deep Survival’ (2003).

The impact is that we tend to become fixated on our expectations, and then continue to blunder forward with a kind of blind optimism that believes the expectation will come to pass. That serves us well until there is a conflict – either between our expectations and those of another; or when reality begins to diverge from what we expect. At that point we have the choice of reformulating our expectations. If we don’t we are destined to encounter disappointment, conflict and friction.

The biggest challenge is being aware of what your expectations actually are. Most are formed without any conscious thought. for more on that see recent post http://goo.gl/dHZydF

I use a couple of great questions to clarify my own expectations:

1. What do I expect in this situation?
2. What is the impact on myself and others if this expectation is not met?

Once you are clear about your own expectations, one of the greatest gifts you can give to others is to clearly communicate your expectations with them, and seek to understand theirs.

The beginning of a new financial year is a great time to intentionally discuss your expectations in business. Are your strategies sound in the current reality? Are you tuned in to the expectations of your clients or customers? Does your team have a clear picture of what is expected of them, including how success will be measured or judged? Have you spent some time exploring the plausible "what if" scenarios for your business? 

Beauty, Sandflies and Friction

Last week I took a short break with a good mate. We spent a few days camped on a beautiful and remote freshwater lake. These lakes only fill on occasional years in the arid outback, and they dry up fairly quickly, so the opportunity was fleeting. The photo captured part of a 100 strong flock swans relocating for the night.

We were surrounded by ephemeral beauty, far from the distractions of everyday life, and yet there was a real risk of missing it all. We were distracted by agents of torment - millions of sandflies making the most of ideal breeding conditions. 

A sandfly bite is not initially painful and the insect is tiny enough to go almost unnoticed, even in their droves. But there's a catch. After a while the bites itch beyond belief, the kind of itching that has you lying awake at night, tearing at your own flesh and teetering on the edge of madness. The level of discomfort steadily builds over multiple days.

The key is to notice the sandfly early. If you pay attention to the first minor bites, and get some good quality repellant on, the later torment can be minimised and almost avoided. The trouble is, at the moment of most effective action, the issue doesn't seem big enough to bother with.

Many issues in life and business are like that - starting small and insignificant, and building in intensity. One of my Thrive and Adapt principles is "Treat the Hotspots". It's about the discipline to notice and deal with issues while they are still small. 

The indicators of a potentially building issue are tension, friction or conflict either within yourself, or between you and/or others. This short (just under 4 min) video talks about how to deal with friction effectively.

What are the minor niggles you need to get onto this week?

Who's involved?

The group sat in the shade and discussed their options. The campsite wasn't great. There was very little in the way of soft sand. In survival mode - literally sleeping on the ground -no soft sand means a hard nights sleep. The problem was it was also getting dark, and the group was walking in a gorge. Walking after dark was not a safe option. The group had almost decided to sleep here for the night. The trouble was not everyone had agreed. 

The group dispersed. Some people got busy collecting wood and water. Others began setting up a place to sleep. Two people were convinced that a better option existed just down the river. They decided to go check it out, recruiting another person on the way. They found a spot they preferred. Two people stayed there, replicating the effort of others upstream. The last came back to get the rest of the group. The trouble was no one else wanted to move. Not only had they not been involved in the revised decision, but they had also invested significant time and effort preparing this spot.

Eventually, the whole group got back together at the original spot. There were lots of disgruntled people, who remained dissatisfied for several days.

Over the past few weeks we have been looking at ineffective loops of behaviour. There are two here.

1. The majority of the group flew into action too quickly. They thought the decision had been made, but others were not convinced. Spending a few more minutes coming to a firm decision would have stopped the problem before it began.
2. The others made the subsequent decision without everyone present, and failed to communicate what they were doing and why. If they had gathered the group together for the discussion, or been more assertive in the original decision making process, they too could have headed it off at the pass.

Get clear before taking action. Involve all the key players.

Decisions, decisions.

My last blog post stirred up a few questions from readers. People wanted to know what specific loops of behaviour were more or less effective. Over the next few weeks I'll unfold some of the more common ones.

The group sat around their morning camp fire. Debate raged back and forth about which way was the best way to go. They were partway through a 200km survival walk. Fatigue and hunger were beginning to play a part. Over the past days, the group had worked out that wasting effort took a toll on their energy and motivation. This morning's debate was about the most efficient route to take to their next check point. They had two clear options and opinion was divided about which was best.

It's a classic ineffective decision making loop. Just when a decision seemed to be made, the alternative was re opened for exploration. The decision making process dragged on and on. Neither party had enough information to mount a definitive case. By the time the group had settled on a decision, the day was heating up. They ended up walking through the heat, taxing their energy even further. The discussion had used up the cool of the day - the ideal time for action.

By the end of the walk, the group was operating as two fractured sub groups. They were making decisions by default, and sometimes taking action without even being clear about what they were doing, or why. The more decisions they made, the less decisive they became. People began second guessing themselves, and some pulled back from the process entirely.

They definitely did it tougher than they needed to.

By contrast groups that have effective decision making loops show these attributes.

• Explicit discussions about how they will make decisions, and resolve differing perspectives. They revisit these discussions often to ensure their process is working.
• Clear priorities. For example, taking action while it was cool always beat discussion at that time of day.
• Listening, openness and curiosity. They had ways to hear the quieter participants. Rather than just arguing they were keen to know what others were thinking and why.
• Deciding in advance. If the plan was to walk at first light, all decisions were made the night before, enabling action as soon as there was enough light.
• Reviewing decisions on the fly. In any situation, as you move forward, you get more information. Some of that sheds new light on your decisions, and may even mean they have to be changed. Rather that regretting the old decision, they simply made a new one and moved on.
• Group commitment. This is perhaps most important of all. Once decisions were made, the whole group committed to executing it. Whether they ultimately agree or not, effective groups take action together.

What can survival situations and scenarios teach us?

Many people are fascinated by survival and the two most common questions I get asked are:

"How did you get into teaching survival?" closely followed by, "Well that’s interesting Mike, but what’s it got to do with the real challenges and issues I face in my everyday life?"

Lets face it, it’s unlikely that most of us will face a genuine survival situation, where actual life of limb are at threat anytime soon. 

Over the years I’ve observed myself and many others in survival scenarios, and actual, life threatening situations. They are a great observation platform for human behaviour.

A survival situation is cleaner, clearer and less complex than the lives we typically live. There are straight, uncluttered lines between what people do, and the results of their actions. And, the feedback loops are rapid and aggressive. It’s possible to observe the outcome of a particular way of thinking or acting a short time after it has been used. Sometimes you get to see whether what you did was effective or ineffective in a matter of minutes or hours. At most it will be a few days. 

This combination of simplicity and rapid feedback make it possible to directly observe your habitual patterns of behaviour. How the survivalist makes decisions, leads, resolves conflict, deals with uncertainty, handles changes to plan, works under pressure, builds rapport, deals with disappointment, manages expectations, and their other patterns of behaviour are thrown into sharp relief against the backdrop of rapid feedback. Some patterns are more effective than others. Some people have a great toolbox of effective patterns. They handle uncertainty and difficulty with seeming ease. Others have patterns that make it more likely that things won’t go well for them, or the people around them.

Over the years I have seen the same patterns of behaviour I observe in the field show up in workplaces. They are present all the time, and get magnified when people are under pressure. In contrast to survival, work situations are much more complex. The feedback loops can be slow and indirect. At work, and in our relationships, it may be weeks, years, or even decades before we recognise the results of particular patterns. Even then, they may be so clouded in the complexity of projects, the patterns of other people, and the passage of time, that we may never gaze directly and clearly at the link between our patterns and our results.

Survival situations have much to teach us about the hard wired, ancient survival mechanisms we all have. They give great insights into the advantages and disadvantages of this incredible entity called a human being.

Having straddled the worlds of survival and organisational change for 20 years, I'm interested in giving people a bit of a user manual, helping them get the best out of themselves and the people around them when the pressure is on and the chips are down. 

What's the situation?

There's three types of situation we can be in.

1. A survival situation - If it is a physical situation life or limb will be at risk. In relationships or business the impact might be measured in loss of business, finances, or relationship breakdown. Survival situations are characterised by immanent and often dynamic threats which need to be dealt with decisively and quickly.
2. Just living - Things are neither extremely good, or extremely risky. These are great times for considered, proactive change or a deliberate, intentional rest.
3. A thriving situation - Life (or business) is going very well. Opportunities abound. Many aspects of the environment are aligning to create positive alliances, growth and possibilities. Make hay while the sun shines.

If we know what situation we are facing, we can intentionally and deliberately respond to it. It's amazing how often people think or react as if they are in a different situation to the one they are actually in. Sometimes people think, feel and act as if they are in a survival situation when they are not. It adds stress, they miss opportunities, and potentially they create a survival situation where there wasn't one.

The reverse can also be true, that we are in a survival situation, but think feel and act as if we are not. Very risky!

One of the clearest examples I see of this is on the road, but it happens in business and relationships as well.

 Every day I see a driver pick up their phone to check or send a message. It’s a clearly established fact that the instant you do so you massively increase the chances of crashing your car. 

Recent research by Professor Dingus in Virginia quantified this. He says, “Taking your eyes off the road to dial a cell phone or look up an address and send a text increases the risk of crashing by 600 to 2,300 per cent.”

If people were genuinely aware of this risk, they would never pick up the phone on the road. It is a genuine, life-at-risk survival situation. To be able to do that, there’s got to be a lack of acknowledgement of the real state. Either a sense that ‘I’m so bloody good at driving, this risk doesn’t apply to me” or “The traffic is cruisey, I’ve got heaps of space and time”.

There’s only three possible outcomes. 

1. A near miss. - This is the best possible outcome. It might shake the driver out of their complacent denial.
2. A sudden, violent reminder that Phone + Driving = Accident - This is at the very least destructive, always traumatic and in the worst case scenario, fatal. Definitely a bad outcome.
3. The driver gets away with it, reinforcing their delusion. - This actually significantly increases the future potential for 1 or 2 to occur. The fact the driver got away with it increases their sense that they are not in a survival situation, making it more likely that they will txt again, perhaps in increasingly busy traffic conditions, and for longer periods of time. 

All survival states are like this. The risk may not be directly to life or limb. It might be measured in financial or relationship terms, but ultimately lack of decisive and timely action will inevitably lead to a confrontation with the risk.

How do you determine what situation you are facing?